Tuesday briefing: How to make sense of England’s local elections campaigns

In today’s newsletter: From breakthroughs to breakdowns, what we can expect to see – and what the consequences of the vote could beGood morning. On 7 May, voters in England will go to the polls for a series of local elections, on the same day that Scotland and Wales vote for new governments. It promises to be a torrid time for Keir Starmer and his governing Labour party, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Zack Polanski’s Green party and Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru expected to make breakthroughs.Recent polling, though, suggests that the overall balance between those on the right and those on the left has barely shifted – rather, previously loyal Conservative voters are moving towards Farage’s party, while Labour voters are deserting to other progressive options.Middle East crisis | Donald Trump has threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and fresh water plants if Tehran does not agree to peace terms “shortly”.Israel | Israel’s parliament has passed a law imposing the death penal